Just as the 2022 crypto crash had many downstream effects for effective altruism, so could a future crash in AI stocks have several negative (though hopefully less severe) effects on AI safety.
The most obvious reason AI stocks might crash is that...
Thanks for the post, Ben!
First, the wealth of many donors to AI safety is pretty correlated with AI stocks.
I like that Founders Pledge's Patient Philanthropy Fund (PPF) invests in "a low-fee Global Stock Index Fund".
This article is last in a series of 10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance, such as incident reporting, safety evals, model registries, and more. We’ll provide an overview of existing regulations, focusing on the US, EU, and China as the leading governmental bodies currently developing AI legislation. Additionally, we’ll discuss the relevant context behind each domain and conduct a short analysis.
This series is intended to be a primer for policymakers, researchers, and individuals seeking to develop a high-level overview of the current AI governance space. We’ll publish individual posts on our website and release a comprehensive report at the end of this series.
High Impact Professionals is excited to announce that applications are now open for the Summer 2024 round of our Impact Accelerator Program (IAP). The IAP is a 6-week program designed to equip experienced EA-aligned professionals (not currently working at an EA organization...
Common prevalence estimates are often wrong. Example: snakebites and my experience reading Long Covid literature.
Both institutions like the WHO and academic literature appear to be incentivized to exaggerate. I think the Global Burden of Disease might be a more reliable source, but have not looked into it.
I advise everyone using prevalence estimates to treat them with some skepticism and look up the source.
Global Burden of Disease (GBD) is okay, it depends a lot on what disease & metric you're looking at, and how aware you are of the caveats around it. Some of these:
Overall, I think the GBD is very robust and an extremely useful tool, especially for (a) making direct comparisons between countries or diseases and (b) where no direct, trustworthy, country-specific data is available. But you should be able to improve on its accuracy if you have an inside view on a particular situation. I don't think it's subject to the incentives you mention above in quite the same way.
I think it would be worth the while of the Center of Effective Altruism and forum administrators to build a section, accessible through the sidebar or potentially somewhere even more attention-grabbing, wherein forum users can upload a career profile, including a section for current aspirations, a reflection on one's current job/etc, and of course a link to or embedded resume.
Other users could browse profiles, responding to questions posed on the profile or making recommendations based on the individual's goals and experience.
The exposure of forum users to the profiles could be done in many ways, but I think a grid of image + crucial info boxes, one for each profile, sortable and rankable according to different categories or metrics, would be especially easy to navigate, enabling users browsing the profiles to find those they are especially well-equipped to advise or might want to partner...
I was interviewed in yesterday’s 80,000 hours podcast: Dean Spears on why babies are born small in Uttar Pradesh, and how to save their lives. As I say in the podcast, there’s good evidence that this is a cost-effective way to save lives. Many peer-reviewed articles show...
Thanks a lot for the detailed response Dean! The details on the motivational help that nurses provide make it clear that there's much less of an arbitrage opportunity/free lunch than I'd hoped (as is often the case with mere info).
Thanks again for all the great work (including on OD, I learned a lot from where India goes)!
Tl;dr:
Inside Wytham Abbey, the £15 Million Castle Effective Altruism Must Sell [Bloomberg]
From the article:
I still think the intangible reputational damage is worse, but a loss of a million pounds (that could've been spent on malaria bed nets) would be nothing to sneeze at either.
(archive link)